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Home / Markets / Core CPI YoY - July 2026
Resolved market scorecard

Core CPI YoY - July 2026: result and scorecard

Resolved 2.5%. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 46.5%; a week before, 46.0%. $140K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

2.5%
resolved August 12, 2026

Price 1 day before

46.5%
Market was a coin flip

Price 7 days before

46.0%
30 days before: –

Volume

$140K
10 outcomes

CPIEconomyCore CPIInflationCPI Release

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
2.5%WON$19K
2.4%LOST$45K
2.7%LOST$21K
2.6%LOST$20K
2.9%LOST$17K
≤2.2%LOST$6K
2.3%LOST$6K
≥3.1%LOST$2K
2.8%LOST$2K
3.0%LOST$1K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%07-1507-2908-12
2.5%2.4%2.7%2.6%
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 47% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Core CPI YoY - July 2026" resolve?
It resolved 2.5% around August 12, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 46.5% one day before close, 46.0% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$140K across 10 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.