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Home / Markets / ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?
Resolved market scorecard

ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?: result and scorecard

Resolved February 28. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 42.5%; a week before, 50.5%. $288K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

February 28
resolved February 19, 2026

Price 1 day before

42.5%
Market was a coin flip

Price 7 days before

50.5%
30 days before: –

Volume

$288K
4 outcomes

TechBig TechApp StorechatgptCulture

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
February 28WON$90K
February 22WON$89K
February 18WON$69K
February 14LOST$40K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%02-1202-1502-19
February 28February 22February 18February 14
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 43% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ChatGPT is no longer the iOS app ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps" by the specified date, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Frequently asked questions

How did "ChatGPT out as #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store by...?" resolve?
It resolved February 28 around February 28, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 42.5% one day before close, 50.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$288K across 4 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.