Canada passes under-16 social media ban in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

On June 10, 2026, the Government of Canada introduced Bill C-34, the Safe Social Media Act, which would bar Canadians under the age of 16 from holding social media accounts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill C-34, or any other federal bill that prohibits people under the age of 16 from holding accounts on social media platforms, receives Royal Assent by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Royal Assent is required. Passage by the House of Commons or the Senate alone, committee approval, or a government announcement will not count. A bill counts if its general rule bars people under 16 from holding accounts, even if it allows exemptions, for example for platforms that meet safety standards set by a regulator or for accounts opened with parental consent. A bill whose general rule applies only to people under age 15 does not count. Whether the law has come into force by the deadline will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Provincial legislation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Parliament of Canada's LEGISinfo record for Bill C-34, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.