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Home / Markets / Bank of Japan Decision in June?
Resolved market scorecard

Bank of Japan Decision in June?: result and scorecard

Resolved 25 bps increase. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 98.6%; a week before, 96.9%. $963K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

25 bps increase
resolved June 16, 2026

Price 1 day before

98.6%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

96.9%
30 days before: 79.8%

Volume

$963K
4 outcomes

Japaninterest ratesGlobal RatesEconomyEconomic Policy

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
25 bps increaseWON$241K
50+ bps increaseLOST$362K
No changeLOST$265K
Decrease ratesLOST$96K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%03-2005-0306-16
25 bps increase50+ bps increaseNo changeDecrease rates
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Bank of Japan Decision in June?" resolve?
It resolved 25 bps increase around June 16, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 98.6% one day before close, 96.9% one week before and 79.8% one month before.
How much was traded?
$963K across 4 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.