Bank of Canada Decision in January?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is No Change at 51.5%, ahead of 25 bps increase at 38.5%. $13K traded across 5 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
CanadaEconomyRecurringGlobal Rates
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| No Change | 51.5% | -3.0 |
| 25 bps increase | 38.5% | +2.5 |
| 50+ bps increase | 4.7% | +0.1 |
| 50+ bps decrease | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| 25 bps decrease | 4.5% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the January 2027 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its January 2027 interest rate announcement, scheduled for January 27, 2027, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its January 2027 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Bank of Canada Decision in January?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, No Change is the favorite at 51.5%, followed by 25 bps increase at 38.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 27, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $13K in total and $151 in the last 24 hours, with about $7K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.