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Another Canada election called by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is December 31, 2026 at 5.3%. $100K traded across 1 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

5.3%
December 31, 2026 · Trade →

24h move

-0.1
pts · 7d +0.1

Volume

$100K
24h $0 · liquidity $16K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

CanadaPoliticsWorld

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
December 31, 20265.3% -0.1+0.1$9K4.3¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%06-2909-0211-06
December 31, 2026

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2026 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2027, this market will resolve to "Yes"). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31, 2026 at 5% risks 5¢ to win 95¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Another Canada election called by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, December 31, 2026 is the favorite at 5.3%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$100K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $16K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Brantford—Brant South By-Election WinnerCanada GDP: September 2026 (MoM)Scarborough North By-Election WinnerCanada Annual Inflation 2026Next Premier of British ColumbiaUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?Yorkton—Melville By-Election WinnerBank of Canada Decision in December?All live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.