Alaska passes ballot measure repealing ranked choice voting?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

Alaska Ballot Measure 2 is a ballot measure scheduled to appear in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would eliminate the top-four primaries and ranked-choice voting general elections in Alaska, among other items. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Alaska statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. Subsequent litigation or any failure to implement the measure will have no impact on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of Alaska, including the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/).