Sports betting
Closing line value (CLV)
The difference between the odds you got and the odds available at close, used to judge whether a bettor beats the market over time.
If you bet a team at +3.5 and the line closes at +2.5, you got half a point of value. Over hundreds of bets, consistently beating the closing line is the strongest evidence of skill, because the closing line is the most efficient price in the market.
The same idea applies to prediction markets: buying Yes at 40 cents in a market that closes trading at 55 cents shows good timing, whatever the eventual result.
CLV matters because results are noisy. A bettor can win for months on luck, but beating the close is hard to fake.
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Frequently asked questions
- What does "Closing line value (CLV)" mean?
- The difference between the odds you got and the odds available at close, used to judge whether a bettor beats the market over time.
- Why does closing line value (clv) matter for prediction markets?
- CLV matters because results are noisy. A bettor can win for months on luck, but beating the close is hard to fake.