Will Trump's first endorsement before the primaries be the 2028 GOP nominee?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election by the day before the first Republican presidential primary or caucus for the 2028 cycle, 11:59 PM ET, wins and accepts the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any replacement of the Republican Party’s nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. The following rules govern the determination of the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election: An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States Presidential Election. An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential Election will qualify as an endorsement for the 2028 United States Presidential Election. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify. The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support. An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the r