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Resolved market scorecard

Will Trump visit China on...?: result and scorecard

Resolved May 13. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 96.7%; a week before, 73.5%. $5.7M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

May 13
resolved May 13, 2026

Price 1 day before

96.7%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

73.5%
30 days before: –

Volume

$5.7M
32 outcomes

TrumpPoliticsGeopoliticsTariffsTrade War

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
May 13WON$1.5M
May 12LOST$1.0M
May 14LOST$815K
May 15LOST$703K
No visit by May 31LOST$313K
May 11LOST$195K
May 16LOST$172K
May 17LOST$120K
May 19LOST$93K
May 21LOST$78K
May 18LOST$74K
May 23LOST$67K
May 20LOST$67K
May 22LOST$58K
May 31LOST$53K
May 24LOST$48K
May 27LOST$44K
May 25LOST$43K
May 26LOST$39K
May 29LOST$38K
May 28LOST$38K
May 30LOST$37K
May 10LOST$36K
May 9LOST$24K
On or prior to May 1LOST$13K
May 8LOST$13K
May 3LOST$12K
May 7LOST$9K
May 4LOST$6K
May 5LOST$6K
May 6LOST$5K
May 2LOST$5K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%04-2805-0505-13
May 13May 12May 14May 15
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 97% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which U.S. President Donald Trump next visits China. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will Trump visit China on...?" resolve?
It resolved May 13 around May 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 96.7% one day before close, 73.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$5.7M across 32 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.