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Home / Markets / Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30?
Resolved market scorecard

Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30?: result and scorecard

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 97.0%; a week before, 93.5%. $21K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No
resolved May 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

97.0%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

93.5%
30 days before: –

Volume

$21K
1 outcome

popePoliticsCultureTrump

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesLOST$21K
NoWON$21K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%04-2204-2605-01
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 97% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Pope Leo XIV personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the Pope weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the Pope's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will Trump disparage Pope Leo XIV by April 30?" resolve?
It resolved No around April 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 97.0% one day before close, 93.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$21K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.