What are the odds that Vatican III in 2026?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 9.9% and No at 90.1%, on $17 of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$17 in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $92 of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Live market data

Vatican III in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Vatican III in 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 9.9% (0.0 pts in 24h). $17 has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

9.9%

No 90.1% · Trade →

24h move

0.0

pts · 7d 0.0

Volume

$17

24h $0 · liquidity $92

Closes

January 1, 2027

56 days left

pope Culture Pope Leo XIV pope francis

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	9.9%	0.0	0.0	$17	14.2¢
No	90.1%	0.0	0.0	$17	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Pope convokes any ecumenical council between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only ecumenical councils will qualify. Plenary or provincial councils will not be considered. This market will resolve according to announcements from the Pope, Vatican officials, or a consensus of credible reporting. Any official announcement will qualify, regardless of if or when the council actually occurs.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 10% risks 10¢ to win 90¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Vatican III in 2026?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 9.9% and No at 90.1%, on $17 of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $17 in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $92 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.