LIVE Hyperliquid whale tracker: the largest open positions and what they are doing, updated every few minutes →
Home / Markets / Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?
Resolved market scorecard

Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?: result and scorecard

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 72.0%; a week before, 13.5%. $1.9M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes
resolved January 16, 2026

Price 1 day before

72.0%
Market leaned the right way

Price 7 days before

13.5%
30 days before: –

Volume

$1.9M
1 outcome

Trump-MachadoTrumpCultureVenezuelaPolitics

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesWON$1.9M
NoLOST$1.9M

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%01-0701-1101-16
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 72% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 1) Public statements from both Donald Trump and Maria Corina Machado announcing that they are sharing the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize or that the Nobel prize has been transferred to Trump. This does not require official confirmation from the Nobel Prize or the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Only statements from both Machado and Trump which demonstrate that they are currently sharing, will share, or have decided to share the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize will count. Statements that merely express a desire to share the prize or otherwise endorse the idea of sharing, without clearly demonstrating an agreement to share or an active sharing of the prize, will not count. 2) A consensus of credible reporting or statements from both Machado and Trump confirm that the physical 2025 Nobel Peace Prize medal has been transferred to Trump for permanent ownership or joint ownership with Machado. 3) The Nobel Prize or the Norwegian Nobel Committee officially recognize Donald Trump as a co-recipient of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and Maria Corina Machado, official information from the Nobel Peace Prize or the Norwegian Nobel Committee (https://www.nobelprize.org/), and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?" resolve?
It resolved Yes around December 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 72.0% one day before close, 13.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$1.9M across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.