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Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is December 31 at 87.5%, ahead of November 30 at 49.5%. $86K traded across 3 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

87.5%
December 31 · Trade →

24h move

-1.8
pts · 7d -6.8

Volume

$86K
24h $3K · liquidity $26K

Closes

December 1, 2026
25 days left

TrumpAliensCulturePolitics

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
December 3187.5% -1.8-6.8$33K0.4¢
November 3049.5% -10.0-25.5$18K1.0¢
November 155.5% 0.0-1.0$35K1.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-3011-0211-06
December 31November 30November 15

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying December 31 at 88% risks 88¢ to win 13¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?"?
As of November 6, 2026, December 31 is the favorite at 87.5%, followed by November 30 at 49.5%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$86K in total and $3K in the last 24 hours, with about $26K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.