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Home / Markets / Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?
Resolved market scorecard

Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?: result and scorecard

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 92.0%; a week before, 97.4%. $117K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No
resolved July 2, 2026

Price 1 day before

92.0%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

97.4%
30 days before: 94.5%

Volume

$117K
1 outcome

AIElon MuskBig TechBusinessTech

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesLOST$117K
NoWON$117K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%11-1303-0807-02
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 92% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?" resolve?
It resolved No around June 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 92.0% one day before close, 97.4% one week before and 94.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$117K across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.