What are the odds that Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day reach $1B in domestic box office in 2026?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 10.0% and No at 90.0%, on $83 of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$83 in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $768 of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day reach $1B in domestic box off

Live market data

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day reach $1B in domestic box office in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day reach $1B in domestic box office in 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 10.0% (0.0 pts in 24h). $83 has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

10.0%

No 90.0% · Trade →

24h move

0.0

pts · 7d -3.0

Volume

$83

24h $0 · liquidity $768

Closes

December 31, 2026

56 days left

Movies Culture Box Office Spider-Man

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	10.0%	0.0	-3.0	$83	16.0¢
No	90.0%	0.0	+3.0	$83	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses $1,000,000,000 (one billion dollars) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 10% risks 10¢ to win 90¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day reach $1B in domestic box office in 2026?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 10.0% and No at 90.0%, on $83 of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $83 in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $768 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.