What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is <$1T at 27.9%, ahead of $1.25T–$1.5T at 19.4%. $715K traded across 8 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| <$1T | 27.9% | -0.5 |
| $1.25T–$1.5T | 19.4% | +0.3 |
| $1.5T–$1.75T | 18.0% | -0.6 |
| $1.75T–$2.0T | 14.0% | 0.0 |
| $1.0T–$1.25T | 9.7% | +4.2 |
| $2.5T+ | 6.7% | -0.1 |
| $2.0T–$2.25T | 4.2% | +0.1 |
| $2.25T–$2.5T | 3.4% | -0.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, <$1T is the favorite at 27.9%, followed by $1.25T–$1.5T at 19.4%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $715K in total and $12K in the last 24 hours, with about $54K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.