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Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 1.7% (0.0 pts in 24h). $119K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

1.7%
No 98.3% · Trade →

24h move

0.0
pts · 7d -2.1

Volume

$119K
24h $0 · liquidity $11K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

BusinessMichael SaylorMicroStrategyMSTRCrypto

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes1.7% 0.0-2.1$119K1.2¢
No98.3% 0.0+2.1$119K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:16 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%02-0406-2111-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy incorporated is margin called on any of its Bitcoin-backed loans by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resulting in either a forced liquidation of Bitcoin by a lender or MicroStrategy posting additional collateral or making a loan repayment in response to the margin call. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A margin call is defined as a lender formally requiring MicroStrategy to either provide additional collateral or repay part of a loan due to the value of Bitcoin collateral falling below the required loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. Voluntary Bitcoin sales by MicroStrategy that are not explicitly in response to a margin call will not count. The primary resolution sources will be SEC filings, official MicroStrategy statements, and a consensus of credible financial reporting.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 2% risks 2¢ to win 98¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 1.7% and No at 98.3%, on $119K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$119K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $11K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.