Will Hezbollah target Israel by...?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hezbollah targets Israel through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Israel Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Hezbollah, directed at Israel. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones, surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles, and surface-to-surface rockets, including unguided rockets (e.g. Katyusha, Grad, Fajr, or Burkan rockets). The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, and mortars; Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Israel if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Israel, including any internal waters. For the purposes of this market, the terrestrial territory of Israel refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, as well as the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Military actions directed at Israeli forces or positions outside this territory (e.g. in Lebanon or Syria) will not count. Only military actions explicitly claimed by Hezbollah, or attributed to Hezbollah by a consensus of information available from the resolution sources, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by other actors (e.g. Iran, the Houthis, Hamas, or other armed groups operating from Lebanon) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict reg