Get the brief
LIVE Hyperliquid whale tracker: the largest open positions and what they are doing, updated every few minutes →
Home / Markets / Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?
Live market data

Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 4.3% (+0.3 pts in 24h). $12K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

4.3%
No 95.7% · Trade →

24h move

+0.3
pts · 7d +2.1

Volume

$12K
24h $0 · liquidity $11K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

RecurringElon MuskTechPoliticsTrump

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes4.3% +0.3+2.1$12K3.3¢
No95.7% -0.3-2.1$12K–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%01-0806-0811-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 4% risks 4¢ to win 96¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 4.3% and No at 95.7%, on $12K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$12K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $11K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Fed Decision in December?Bitcoin above ___ on November 6?What price will Bitcoin hit in November?Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31?Elon Musk # tweets October 30 - November 6, 2026?What price will Bitcoin hit November 2-8?What price will Bitcoin hit on November 5?What price will Ethereum hit November 2-8?All live marketsMarkets resolving this weekPrediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.