How did "Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?" resolve?

It resolved No around March 31, 2026.

What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 100.0% one day before close, 99.8% one week before and 98.9% one month before.

Home / Markets / Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Resolved market scorecard

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?: result and scorecard

Name: Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 100.0%; a week before, 99.8%. $10.6M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved April 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

100.0%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.8%

30 days before: 98.9%

Volume

$10.6M

1 outcome

Foreign Policy Geopolitics Earn 3.25%China World

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$10.6M
No	WON	$10.6M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?" resolve?: It resolved No around March 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 100.0% one day before close, 99.8% one week before and 98.9% one month before.
How much was traded?: $10.6M across 1 outcome.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.