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Live market data

Who will Trump speak to by October 31?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is Lula da Silva at 11.1%, ahead of Mark Rutte at 6.0%. $305K traded across 2 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

11.1%
Lula da Silva · Trade →

24h move

0.0
pts · 7d -10.4

Volume

$305K
24h $47 · liquidity $283

Closes

November 1, 2026
0 days left

TrumpPoliticsGeopolitics

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Lula da Silva11.1% 0.0-10.4$29K21.5¢
Mark Rutte6.0% -8.0-20.5$9K10.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-3011-0211-06
Lula da SilvaMark Rutte

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe. If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Lula da Silva at 11% risks 11¢ to win 89¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Who will Trump speak to by October 31?"?
As of November 6, 2026, Lula da Silva is the favorite at 11.1%, followed by Mark Rutte at 6.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on November 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$305K in total and $47 in the last 24 hours, with about $283 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.