Who will Trump speak to by October 31?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Lula da Silva at 11.1%, ahead of Mark Rutte at 6.0%. $305K traded across 2 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Lula da Silva | 11.1% | 0.0 |
| Mark Rutte | 6.0% | -8.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe. If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Who will Trump speak to by October 31?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Lula da Silva is the favorite at 11.1%, followed by Mark Rutte at 6.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $305K in total and $47 in the last 24 hours, with about $283 of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.