Who will Trump speak to by November 30?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Xi Jinping at 97.4%, ahead of Mark Carney at 94.2%. $204K traded across 22 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping | 97.4% | +1.4 |
| Mark Carney | 94.2% | +0.4 |
| Vladimir Putin | 92.5% | +2.0 |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 81.0% | -0.5 |
| Mark Rutte | 68.0% | +3.0 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 66.5% | -1.0 |
| Andy Burnham | 61.5% | +2.5 |
| Elon Musk | 60.5% | -1.0 |
| Emmanuel Macron | 57.5% | +1.5 |
| Lula da Silva | 49.0% | -1.5 |
| Ursula von der Leyen | 47.5% | +4.5 |
| Friedrich Merz | 44.0% | -3.0 |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 37.5% | -5.5 |
| Kim Jong Un | 7.5% | -1.5 |
| Pope Leo XIV | 6.0% | 0.0 |
| Maria Corina Machado | 5.5% | -1.0 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel | 3.5% | +0.4 |
| Reza Pahlavi | 3.2% | -1.0 |
| Nicolás Maduro | 2.4% | +0.1 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 1.8% | -0.3 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | 1.7% | 0.0 |
| Yoon Suk Yeol | 1.5% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. This market will resolve at the earlier of i) a qualifying verbal interaction being confirmed under the above rules or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe. If the date and time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by 11:59 PM ET on the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Who will Trump speak to by November 30?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Xi Jinping is the favorite at 97.4%, followed by Mark Carney at 94.2%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $204K in total and $4K in the last 24 hours, with about $207K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.