Who will Trump publicly praise by November 30?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Xi Jinping at 82.8%, ahead of Elon Musk at 65.6%. $13K traded across 10 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping | 82.8% | -4.2 |
| Elon Musk | 65.6% | -10.2 |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 58.0% | -5.0 |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 54.0% | -6.0 |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 44.0% | +0.5 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 37.5% | +6.5 |
| Delcy Rodriguez | 25.5% | -10.0 |
| Kim Jong Un | 23.0% | -2.0 |
| Nicki Minaj | 21.5% | +2.5 |
| Mark Rutte | 21.0% | -7.5 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he praises the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain praising language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Praising language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as praise, or endorses praising language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as praise if it expresses approval, admiration, respect, or endorsement of the individual either personally or professionally. This includes direct praise, attributing a positive personal or professional trait to the individual (e.g., strong, smart, loyal, a winner), or equivalent positive descriptions. General neutrality or polite diplomatic language will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation. A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Who will Trump publicly praise by November 30?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Xi Jinping is the favorite at 82.8%, followed by Elon Musk at 65.6%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $13K in total and $1K in the last 24 hours, with about $2K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.