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Home / Markets / Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?
Resolved market scorecard

Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?: result and scorecard

Resolved Tucker Carlson. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 54.5%; a week before, 38.5%. $186K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Tucker Carlson
resolved October 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

54.5%
Market was a coin flip

Price 7 days before

38.5%
30 days before: –

Volume

$186K
40 outcomes

TrumpCulturePoliticsTrump-Netanyahu

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Tucker CarlsonWON$9K
Jerome PowellWON$8K
Mark CarneyWON$8K
Jon OssoffWON$4K
Nicolás MaduroWON$4K
Barack ObamaWON$4K
Abdul El-SayedWON$2K
Kaitlan CollinsWON$1K
J.B. PritzkerWON$1K
James TalaricoWON$829
Joe BidenWON$234
Kevin WarshLOST$83K
Zohran MamdaniLOST$6K
Emmanuel MacronLOST$6K
Friedrich MerzLOST$5K
Andy BurnhamLOST$4K
Elon MuskLOST$4K
Vladimir PutinLOST$4K
Candace OwensLOST$4K
Hillary ClintonLOST$3K
Kathy HochulLOST$3K
Letitia JamesLOST$3K
Xi JinpingLOST$3K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneLOST$2K
Benjamin NetanyahuLOST$2K
J.D. VanceLOST$2K
Pope Leo XIVLOST$2K
Jimmy KimmelLOST$1K
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezLOST$1K
Ilhan OmarLOST$903
Karoline LeavittLOST$872
Elizabeth WarrenLOST$818
Mohammed bin SalmanLOST$638
Megyn KellyLOST$598
Alex JonesLOST$449
Stephen ColbertLOST$419
Pam BondiLOST$354
Melania TrumpLOST$268
Adam SchiffLOST$168
Norah O'DonnellLOST$138

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%09-0309-1710-01
Tucker CarlsonJerome PowellMark CarneyJon Ossoff
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 55% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is ter

Frequently asked questions

How did "Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?" resolve?
It resolved Tucker Carlson around September 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 54.5% one day before close, 38.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$186K across 40 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.