Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Other at 50.0%, ahead of John Healey at 10.0%. $139K traded across 23 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
UKLabourPoliticsAndy BurnhamUnited Kingdom
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Other | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| John Healey | 10.0% | +0.5 |
| Miatta Fahnbulleh | 9.8% | -4.9 |
| Pat McFadden | 5.1% | +0.1 |
| Yvette Cooper | 4.9% | -0.1 |
| Lucy Powell | 4.9% | 0.0 |
| Alan Campbell | 4.8% | +0.1 |
| Jonathan Reynolds | 4.5% | -0.1 |
| Douglas Alexander | 4.5% | -0.1 |
| Angela Eagle | 4.3% | -0.8 |
| Alex Norris | 4.3% | -0.1 |
| Heidi Alexander | 4.2% | +0.1 |
| Angela Rayner | 4.0% | 0.0 |
| Angela Smith | 4.0% | -0.1 |
| Bridget Phillipson | 3.9% | -0.1 |
| Lisa Nandy | 3.9% | -0.1 |
| Anneliese Midgley | 3.9% | -0.1 |
| Chris Bryant | 3.5% | 0.0 |
| Shabana Mahmood | 3.4% | -0.1 |
| Wes Streeting | 3.3% | -0.2 |
| Louise Haigh | 3.2% | -0.1 |
| Ed Miliband | 3.2% | -0.1 |
| Stephen Kinnock | 3.0% | -0.3 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Other is the favorite at 50.0%, followed by John Healey at 10.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2028. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $139K in total and $10 in the last 24 hours, with about $24K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.