Who will attend the State of the Union address?: result and scorecard
Resolved Nick Shirley. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 100.0%; a week before, 83.0%. $7.9M traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
TrumpCulturePoliticsSOTUState of Union
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Nick Shirley | WON |
| Erika Kirk | WON |
| Ilhan Omar | WON |
| Barron Trump | WON |
| Al Green | WON |
| Nancy Pelosi | WON |
| Jared Kushner | WON |
| Scott Bessent | WON |
| Ivanka Trump | WON |
| Susan Collins | WON |
| John Fetterman | WON |
| Kristi Noem | WON |
| Jon Ossoff | WON |
| Brett M. Kavanaugh | WON |
| John G. Roberts | WON |
| Brooke Rollins | WON |
| David Ellison | WON |
| Doug Burgum | WON |
| Pete Hegseth | WON |
| Amy Coney Barrett | WON |
| Chris Wright | WON |
| Elena Kagan | WON |
| George Santos | LOST |
| Judy Shelton | LOST |
| Tucker Carlson | LOST |
| María Corina Machado | LOST |
| Gianni Infantino | LOST |
| Nicki Minaj | LOST |
| Elon Musk | LOST |
| Kash Patel | LOST |
| Dana White | LOST |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | LOST |
| Jensen Huang | LOST |
| Anthony Kennedy | LOST |
| Ketanji Brown Jackson | LOST |
| Delcy Rodriguez | LOST |
| Mark Zuckerberg | LOST |
| Mitch McConnell | LOST |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | LOST |
| Neil Gorsuch | LOST |
| Jeff Bezos | LOST |
| Gavin Newsom | LOST |
| Sonia Sotomayor | LOST |
| Viktor Orbán | LOST |
| Clarence Thomas | LOST |
| Samuel A. Alito | LOST |
| Chris Murphy | LOST |
| Brilyn Hollyhand | LOST |
| Kevin Warsh | LOST |
| Neil M. Gorsuch | OPEN |
| Ketanji Brown Jackson | OPEN |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
The 2026 State of the Union address is scheduled to be held in the Chamber of the U.S. House of Representatives on February 24, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the 2026 State of the Union address. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, attending the State of the Union address is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Who will attend the State of the Union address?" resolve?
- It resolved Nick Shirley around February 24, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 100.0% one day before close, 83.0% one week before and – one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $7.9M across 51 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.