Which Senate races will be within 5%?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Mississippi at 99.6%, ahead of South Carolina at 99.5%. $214K traded across 20 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
SenateMidtermsPoliticsUS ElectionElection Night
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi | 99.6% | +0.1 |
| South Carolina | 99.5% | +2.9 |
| Louisiana | 99.4% | 0.0 |
| Florida (Special) | 99.3% | -0.1 |
| Iowa | 99.0% | +0.1 |
| Alaska | 99.0% | +1.4 |
| Ohio (Special) | 32.0% | -46.0 |
| Kansas | 21.5% | -1.5 |
| Maine | 6.5% | -15.5 |
| Virginia | 1.9% | +1.1 |
| Montana | 1.9% | -38.0 |
| North Carolina | 1.1% | -0.1 |
| New Mexico | 0.9% | +0.4 |
| New Hampshire | 0.9% | -0.1 |
| Colorado | 0.8% | +0.1 |
| Minnesota | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Texas | 0.6% | +0.1 |
| Michigan | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Nebraska | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Georgia | 0.5% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:02 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which Senate races will be within 5%?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Mississippi is the favorite at 99.6%, followed by South Carolina at 99.5%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 4, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $214K in total and $3K in the last 24 hours, with about $188K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.