Closest Senate Race?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Mississippi at 94.8%, ahead of State K at 50.0%. $119K traded across 40 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
SenateMidtermsPoliticsElection Night
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi | 94.8% | +8.0 |
| State K | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| State L | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| State M | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| State N | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| State O | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Alaska | 5.3% | -0.9 |
| Montana | 0.6% | -0.6 |
| Texas | 0.6% | -0.4 |
| Michigan | 0.6% | +0.1 |
| Florida (Special) | 0.6% | -0.2 |
| Kansas | 0.6% | -0.8 |
| South Carolina | 0.6% | +0.1 |
| Louisiana | 0.6% | -0.1 |
| South Dakota | 0.6% | +0.1 |
| Nebraska | 0.5% | -0.5 |
| Minnesota | 0.5% | +0.1 |
| Maine | 0.5% | -0.4 |
| Iowa | 0.5% | +0.1 |
| Ohio (Special) | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Tennessee | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Arkansas | 0.2% | -0.1 |
| Kentucky | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Colorado | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| New Mexico | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Georgia | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Virginia | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| North Carolina | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| New Hampshire | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Alabama | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Delaware | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Idaho | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Illinois | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Massachusetts | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| New Jersey | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Oklahoma | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Oregon | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Rhode Island | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| West Virginia | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Wyoming | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:17 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically. This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Closest Senate Race?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Mississippi is the favorite at 94.8%, followed by State K at 50.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 4, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $119K in total and $10K in the last 24 hours, with about $507K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.