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Live market data

Next US Senate Minority Leader?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is John Thune at 85.0%, ahead of Person D at 50.0%. $32K traded across 59 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

85.0%
John Thune · Trade →

24h move

+1.0
pts · 7d +32.0

Volume

$32K
24h $4K · liquidity $82K

Closes

January 3, 2027
58 days left

TrumpSenateCongressMidtermsPolitics

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
John Thune85.0% +1.0+32.0$12K2.0¢
Person D50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person E50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person F50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person G50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person H50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person I50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person J50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person K50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person L50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person M50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person N50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person O50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person P50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person Q50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person R50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person S50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person T50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person U50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person V50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person W50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person X50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person Y50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person Z50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AA50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AB50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AC50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AD50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AE50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AF50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AG50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AH50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AI50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AJ50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AK50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AL50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AM50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AN50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AO50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AP50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AQ50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AR50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AS50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AT50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AU50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AV50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AW50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AX50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AY50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Person AZ50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
Other50.0% 0.00.0$0100.0¢
John Barrasso4.3% -4.2-1.6$4K2.4¢
Tom Cotton1.3% -0.4-3.1$1K1.8¢
Patty Murray0.7% -0.1-0.4$9850.9¢
Mark Kelly0.4% +0.1-3.4$9740.7¢
Rick Scott0.3% -0.1-10.3$8500.3¢
Chuck Schumer0.1% 0.0-25.9$11K0.1¢
Brian Schatz0.1% 0.0-0.3$6080.1¢
Cory Booker0.1% 0.0-0.1$9580.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
John Thune

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to the individual who is chosen to be the first Senate Minority Leader in the Congress that convenes after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. If no Senate Minority Leader is chosen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be official information from the United States Senate or official announcements from the caucus organization of the relevant party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying John Thune at 85% risks 85¢ to win 15¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Next US Senate Minority Leader?"?
As of November 6, 2026, John Thune is the favorite at 85.0%, followed by Person D at 50.0%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 3, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$32K in total and $4K in the last 24 hours, with about $82K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.