Sweden snap election called in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a snap election is called in Sweden between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The calling of a snap election requires the formal ordering of an extraordinary election, or another formal scheduling, according to the rules of the jurisdiction, of an election for all members of the Riksdag before the next scheduled ordinary Riksdag election. An extraordinary election ordered by the Government, an extraordinary election formally scheduled by the Speaker following the Riksdag's rejection of the Speaker's proposal for Prime Minister four times, and any other means provided for by the Instrument of Government all qualify. An announcement of an intention to order an extraordinary election, a failed vote on a proposed Prime Minister, or the failure of coalition negotiations will not by itself qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. The fourth rejection of a proposed Prime Minister will not qualify until the resulting extraordinary election is formally scheduled. The election need not take place by the deadline. Once a qualifying election is formally ordered or scheduled, its subsequent cancellation or postponement will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.