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Resolved market scorecard

Which company has the best AI model end of April?: result and scorecard

Resolved Anthropic. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.1%; a week before, 84.5%. $21.1M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Anthropic
resolved April 30, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.1%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

84.5%
30 days before: 90.5%

Volume

$21.1M
27 outcomes

TechAIBig TechClaudeGPT-5.5

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
AnthropicWON$2.0M
OpenAILOST$4.0M
DeepSeekLOST$3.2M
BaiduLOST$1.5M
GoogleLOST$1.4M
AmazonLOST$1.2M
Z.aiLOST$1.2M
AlibabaLOST$1.2M
MeituanLOST$1.1M
xAILOST$1.0M
ByteDanceLOST$952K
MoonshotLOST$814K
MistralLOST$716K
MetaLOST$591K
MicrosoftLOST$204K
OtherLOST$0
Company CLOST$0
Company DLOST$0
Company ELOST$0
Company FLOST$0
Company GLOST$0
Company HLOST$0
Company ILOST$0
Company JLOST$0
Company KLOST$0
Company LLOST$0
Company MLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%03-2104-1004-30
AnthropicOpenAIDeepSeekBaidu
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 99% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Which company has the best AI model end of April?" resolve?
It resolved Anthropic around April 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.1% one day before close, 84.5% one week before and 90.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$21.1M across 27 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.