Which company has the best AI model end of April?: result and scorecard
Resolved Anthropic. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.1%; a week before, 84.5%. $21.1M traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| Anthropic | WON |
| OpenAI | LOST |
| DeepSeek | LOST |
| Baidu | LOST |
| LOST | |
| Amazon | LOST |
| Z.ai | LOST |
| Alibaba | LOST |
| Meituan | LOST |
| xAI | LOST |
| ByteDance | LOST |
| Moonshot | LOST |
| Mistral | LOST |
| Meta | LOST |
| Microsoft | LOST |
| Other | LOST |
| Company C | LOST |
| Company D | LOST |
| Company E | LOST |
| Company F | LOST |
| Company G | LOST |
| Company H | LOST |
| Company I | LOST |
| Company J | LOST |
| Company K | LOST |
| Company L | LOST |
| Company M | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "Which company has the best AI model end of April?" resolve?
- It resolved Anthropic around April 30, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.1% one day before close, 84.5% one week before and 90.5% one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $21.1M across 27 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.