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Which company has the #3 AI model end of March? (Style Control On): result and scorecard

Resolved Google. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 95.7%; a week before, 64.5%. $429K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:10 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Google
resolved March 31, 2026

Price 1 day before

95.7%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

64.5%
30 days before: 45.0%

Volume

$429K
23 outcomes

TechGrokAIOpenAIGemini 3

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
GoogleWON$46K
Z.aiLOST$132K
AnthropicLOST$60K
OpenAILOST$41K
DeepSeekLOST$39K
xAILOST$35K
AlibabaLOST$26K
MoonshotLOST$20K
MistralLOST$17K
MeituanLOST$13K
Company ALOST$0
Company BLOST$0
Company CLOST$0
Company DLOST$0
Company ELOST$0
Company FLOST$0
Company GLOST$0
Company HLOST$0
Company ILOST$0
Company JLOST$0
Company KLOST$0
Company LLOST$0
OtherLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%12-0301-3103-31
GoogleZ.aiAnthropicOpenAI
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 96% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Which company has the #3 AI model end of March? (Style Control On)" resolve?
It resolved Google around March 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 95.7% one day before close, 64.5% one week before and 45.0% one month before.
How much was traded?
$429K across 23 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.