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Home / Markets / Which company has best AI model end of June?
Resolved market scorecard

Which company has best AI model end of June?: result and scorecard

Resolved Anthropic. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.5%; a week before, 98.5%. $22.3M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Anthropic
resolved June 30, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.5%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

98.5%
30 days before: 80.7%

Volume

$22.3M
19 outcomes

TechBig TechOpenAIGPT-5Grok

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
AnthropicWON$2.5M
Z.aiLOST$5.1M
xAILOST$2.1M
OpenAILOST$1.8M
GoogleLOST$1.7M
AlibabaLOST$1.5M
DeepSeekLOST$1.2M
MistralLOST$1.0M
MetaLOST$1.0M
MoonshotLOST$837K
ByteDanceLOST$791K
MeituanLOST$763K
MicrosoftLOST$685K
AmazonLOST$631K
BaiduLOST$543K
Company FLOST$0
Company GLOST$0
Company HLOST$0
OtherLOST$0

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%10-1102-1906-30
AnthropicZ.aixAIOpenAI
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Which company has best AI model end of June?" resolve?
It resolved Anthropic around June 30, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.5% one day before close, 98.5% one week before and 80.7% one month before.
How much was traded?
$22.3M across 19 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.