Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q4 2026?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Cheniere Energy (LNG) at 48.0%, ahead of Rocket Companies (RKT) at 41.0%. $19K traded across 11 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
TechFinanceS&P 500Big TechIndicies
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Cheniere Energy (LNG) | 48.0% | +7.5 |
| Rocket Companies (RKT) | 41.0% | -2.0 |
| Astera Labs (ALAB) | 37.0% | -12.5 |
| SoFi Technologies (SOFI) | 28.5% | -7.0 |
| MongoDB (MDB) | 25.5% | +1.5 |
| Credo Technology (CRDO) | 20.5% | -6.5 |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) | 15.5% | +1.5 |
| HEICO (HEI) | 12.0% | -0.5 |
| Affirm Holdings (AFRM) | 6.5% | -5.5 |
| Medline (MDLN) | 5.9% | -0.1 |
| Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) | 2.4% | -0.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The next rebalance is currently scheduled for December 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that the listed company will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the listed ticker must match the announced ticker added to the index. An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q4 2026?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Cheniere Energy (LNG) is the favorite at 48.0%, followed by Rocket Companies (RKT) at 41.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $19K in total and $83 in the last 24 hours, with about $5K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.