What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 53.0% one day before close, 47.5% one week before and – one month before.

Home / Markets / Which astronauts will be on the Artemis III crew?

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Which astronauts will be on the Artemis III crew?: result and scorecard

Name: Which astronauts will be on the Artemis III crew? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved Frank Rubio. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 53.0%; a week before, 47.5%. $5K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:18 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Frank Rubio

resolved June 9, 2026

Price 1 day before

53.0%

Market was a coin flip

Price 7 days before

47.5%

30 days before: –

Volume

$5K

17 outcomes

SpaceX moon Space nasa

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Frank Rubio	WON	$609
Andre Douglas	WON	$210
Christina Koch	LOST	$451
Jessica Watkins	LOST	$423
Nicole Mann	LOST	$344
Matthew Dominick	LOST	$340
Jasmin Moghbeli	LOST	$336
Kayla Barron	LOST	$271
Kimiya Yui	LOST	$266
Victor Glover	LOST	$263
Anne McClain	LOST	$239
Jessica Meir	LOST	$237
Raja Chari	LOST	$236
Jonny Kim	LOST	$191
Takuya Onishi	LOST	$175
Jenni Gibbons	LOST	$155
Warren Hoburg	LOST	$87

Price history to resolution

Frank RubioAndre DouglasChristina KochJessica Watkins

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 53% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

NASA is scheduled to announce the four Artemis III astronauts on June 9, 2026, 11AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is announced as a member of the Artemis III crew. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only individuals named as part of the four-person astronaut crew will qualify. Announcements of inclusion as part of the ground crew or as understudies will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. This market will resolve according only to the initial crew announcement. Changes to the roster after the initial announcement will not be considered. If no announcement of the crew composition takes place by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official announcement from NASA presently scheduled for June 9, 2026, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

How did "Which astronauts will be on the Artemis III crew?" resolve?: It resolved Frank Rubio around June 9, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 53.0% one day before close, 47.5% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $5K across 17 outcomes.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.