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Live market data

Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is 10th-12th at 61.0%, ahead of 7th-9th at 36.5%. $39K traded across 5 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

61.0%
10th-12th · Trade →

24h move

+1.5
pts · 7d +10.5

Volume

$39K
24h $72 · liquidity $10K

Closes

February 1, 2027
87 days left

MoviesCultureBox Office

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
10th-12th61.0% +1.5+10.5$15K2.0¢
7th-9th36.5% -1.0-8.0$11K3.0¢
6th or higher2.8% 0.0+0.4$11K3.5¢
13th-15th0.3% 0.0-0.3$9010.1¢
Below 15th0.3% 0.0-0.1$9310.1¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:05 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
10th-12th7th-9th6th or higher13th-15th

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve according to where 2026 ranks by total annual domestic box office gross among all years on record. The annual "Total Gross" figures found on the "Domestic Yearly Box Office" chart on Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/) will be used to resolve this market once the 2026 value is final. 2026's rank will be determined against the figures for every other year listed on that same chart, such that the highest-grossing year on record ranks 1st, the second-highest ranks 2nd, and so on. This market will resolve to the bracket containing 2026's final rank. This market will resolve according to unadjusted nominal gross. Inflation-adjusted figures, ticket sales, and admissions will not be used for resolution purposes. This market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo annual figures regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc., and regardless of whether a year's total includes grosses earned by films released in prior years. If 2026's final figure is exactly equal to that of another year, 2026 will be treated as holding the higher-ranking (lower-numbered) of the tied positions for the purposes of determining its bracket. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying 10th-12th at 61% risks 61¢ to win 39¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?"?
As of November 6, 2026, 10th-12th is the favorite at 61.0%, followed by 7th-9th at 36.5%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on February 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$39K in total and $72 in the last 24 hours, with about $10K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.