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Home / Markets / What will Trump say during Arizona TPUSA event on April 17?
Resolved market scorecard

What will Trump say during Arizona TPUSA event on April 17? : result and scorecard

Resolved Moon / Astronaut. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 50.5%; a week before, –. $186K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Moon / Astronaut
resolved April 18, 2026

Price 1 day before

50.5%
Market was a coin flip

Price 7 days before

–
30 days before: –

Volume

$186K
28 outcomes

MentionsPoliticsTrump

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
Moon / AstronautWON$11K
Radical LeftWON$8K
HottestWON$8K
Beautiful 3+ timesWON$8K
Make America Great AgainWON$7K
Assassin / AssassinateWON$6K
TransgenderWON$5K
VenezuelaWON$3K
Eight Wars / Eighth WarWON$3K
Lunatic / LunacyWON$1K
Crypto / BitcoinLOST$37K
Charlie / Kirk 5+ timesLOST$19K
-No Qualifying Event-LOST$9K
Sleepy / Biden / Obama 10+ timesLOST$8K
KamalaLOST$7K
Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ timesLOST$6K
No No NoLOST$6K
PopeLOST$5K
WokeLOST$4K
TikTokLOST$4K
Common senseLOST$4K
God 10+ timesLOST$4K
GayLOST$3K
ChristianLOST$3K
Medal of FreedomLOST$2K
Impeach / Impeached / ImpeachmentLOST$2K
Secret ServiceLOST$2K
American DreamLOST$2K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%04-1404-1604-17
Moon / AstronautRadical LeftHottest
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 51% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in a Turning Point USA event in Arizona on April 17, 2026. (https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/president-donald-trump-visit-phoenix-april-turning-point-usa-event). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the Turning Point USA event scheduled for April 17, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Turning Point USA event scheduled for April 17, 2026. (See: https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/president-donald-trump-visit-phoenix-april-turning-point-usa-event). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Frequently asked questions

How did "What will Trump say during Arizona TPUSA event on April 17? " resolve?
It resolved Moon / Astronaut around April 17, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 50.5% one day before close, – one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$186K across 28 outcomes.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.