What will Trump say on November 4?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Fake News at 22.0%. $12K traded across 1 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Fake News | 22.0% | +9.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "What will Trump say on November 4?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Fake News is the favorite at 22.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on November 5, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $12K in total and $861 in the last 24 hours, with about $12 of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.