What will Trump say in November?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is Keep America Great at 89.0%, ahead of Shut Up at 69.0%. $6K traded across 15 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
TrumpMentionsPoliticsRecurring
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Keep America Great | 89.0% | +2.0 |
| Shut Up | 69.0% | 0.0 |
| Clown | 64.0% | 0.0 |
| Gay | 59.0% | 0.0 |
| Third Term | 56.0% | 0.0 |
| Nazi | 53.5% | -1.0 |
| Autism | 51.0% | +4.0 |
| Refund | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Prediction | 47.0% | 0.0 |
| Shark | 46.0% | 0.0 |
| Peace in the Middle East | 45.5% | -0.5 |
| Make Iran Great Again | 41.0% | 0.0 |
| Golden Dome | 32.0% | -21.0 |
| Epstein | 30.5% | +2.0 |
| Rocket Man | 11.5% | 0.0 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 'mention' will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "What will Trump say in November?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, Keep America Great is the favorite at 89.0%, followed by Shut Up at 69.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $6K in total and $199 in the last 24 hours, with about $3K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.