What did the market predict?

Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 99.4% one week before and – one month before.

Home / Markets / U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31

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U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?: result and scorecard

Name: U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.9%; a week before, 99.4%. $1.9M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

resolved February 1, 2026

Price 1 day before

99.9%

Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.4%

30 days before: –

Volume

$1.9M

1 outcome

Trump-Machado Politics Venezuela Geopolitics Trump

Final prices by outcome

Outcome	Result	Volume
Yes	LOST	$1.9M
No	WON	$1.9M

Price history to resolution

Yes

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

How did "U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by January 31?" resolve?: It resolved No around January 31, 2026.
What did the market predict?: Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 99.4% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?: $1.9M across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.