US forces in Venezuela by...?: result and scorecard
Resolved January 31. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 7.5%; a week before, 14.0%. $9.4M traded in total.
Result
Price 1 day before
Price 7 days before
Volume
VenezuelaGeopoliticsWorldTrumpTrump Presidency
Final prices by outcome
| Outcome | Result |
|---|---|
| January 31 | WON |
| March 31 | WON |
| December 31 | LOST |
| November 30 | LOST |
| October 31 | LOST |
| September 30 | LOST |
Price history to resolution
Scorecard
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between September 6, 2025, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
- How did "US forces in Venezuela by...?" resolve?
- It resolved January 31 around March 31, 2026.
- What did the market predict?
- Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 7.5% one day before close, 14.0% one week before and – one month before.
- How much was traded?
- $9.4M across 6 outcomes.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.