LIVE Hyperliquid whale tracker: the largest open positions and what they are doing, updated every few minutes →
Home / Markets / Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Resolved market scorecard

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?: result and scorecard

Resolved No. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 99.9%; a week before, 99.2%. $56.5M traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

No
resolved April 24, 2025

Price 1 day before

99.9%
Market was confident and right

Price 7 days before

99.2%
30 days before: 86.5%

Volume

$56.5M
1 outcome

Trumpdeprec USA ElectionPoliticsUkraineGeopolitics

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesLOST$56.5M
NoWON$56.5M

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%10-2301-2204-24
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 100% the day before is getting it right in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following two conditions are met: 1) Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential election. 2) An armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine at any point between the Associated Press calling the election for Donald Trump, and April 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential election, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for Trump winning the presidency is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This portion of the market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2025) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least the temporary end of the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries. The specific date that such an agreement will take effect is not relevant to the resolution of this market. The only requirement is that the agreement must be announced within this market's specified timeframe. This market will resolve based on the first announcement of such an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement. If it is first announced before this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Frequently asked questions

How did "Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?" resolve?
It resolved No around April 20, 2025.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 99.9% one day before close, 99.2% one week before and 86.5% one month before.
How much was traded?
$56.5M across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.