Who is favored in "SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?"?

As of November 6, 2026, June 30, 2027 is the favorite at 89.5%, followed by December 31, 2026 at 22.0%.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$13K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $5K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?

Live market data

SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?: live odds and probabilities

Name: SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

The market favorite is June 30, 2027 at 89.5%, ahead of December 31, 2026 at 22.0%. $13K traded across 2 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

89.5%

June 30, 2027 · Trade →

24h move

-0.1

pts · 7d -0.4

Volume

$13K

24h $0 · liquidity $5K

Closes

July 1, 2027

237 days left

Tech nasa Space SpaceX launch

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
June 30, 2027	89.5%	-0.1	-0.4	$678	18.2¢
December 31, 2026	22.0%	-1.0	-4.5	$10K	4.0¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:03 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

June 30, 2027December 31, 2026

Market rules and resolution

If the SpaceX Starship successfully launches from a launch pad in Florida by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any renaming of the Starship vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome. The resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying June 30, 2027 at 90% risks 90¢ to win 10¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?"?: As of November 6, 2026, June 30, 2027 is the favorite at 89.5%, followed by December 31, 2026 at 22.0%.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on July 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $13K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $5K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.