Plague declared public health emergency by...?: live odds and probabilities
The market favorite is December 31 at 2.1%, ahead of November 30 at 0.6%. $27K traded across 2 outcomes.
Favorite
24h move
Volume
Closes
All outcomes
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 2.1% | -0.1 |
| November 30 | 0.6% | -0.1 |
Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.
Price history
Market rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization officially declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern covering plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only a determination that constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern under the International Health Regulations will qualify. Other designations will not be considered, including the convening of an Emergency Committee, a Disease Outbreak News publication, a grade assigned under the WHO Emergency Response Framework, and a characterization of the outbreak as a pandemic. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern already in effect at market creation does not qualify; the declaration must occur between market creation and the specified date. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
How to read this market
Frequently asked questions
- Who is favored in "Plague declared public health emergency by...?"?
- As of November 6, 2026, December 31 is the favorite at 2.1%, followed by November 30 at 0.6%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
- How much has been traded?
- $27K in total and $25 in the last 24 hours, with about $17K of resting liquidity.
- Can I trade this market?
- Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.
Related on BetG8
Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.