What are the odds that Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31?

As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 6.4% and No at 93.6%, on $3K of total volume.

When does this market resolve?

The market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.

How much has been traded?

$3K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $2K of resting liquidity.

Can I trade this market?

Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Home / Markets / Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31?

Live market data

Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31?: live odds and probabilities

Name: Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31? prediction market prices
Creator: BetG8

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 6.4% (-0.3 pts in 24h). $3K has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

6.4%

No 93.6% · Trade →

24h move

-0.3

pts · 7d -1.6

Volume

$3K

24h $0 · liquidity $2K

Closes

December 31, 2026

56 days left

UK resign Politics

All outcomes

Outcome	Probability	24h	7d	Volume	Spread
Yes	6.4%	-0.3	-1.6	$3K	5.4¢
No	93.6%	+0.3	+1.6	$3K	–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:01 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

Price history

Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ed Davey ceases to be Leader of the Liberal Democrats for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ed Davey's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ed Davey and the Liberal Democrats; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 6% risks 6¢ to win 94¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31?: As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 6.4% and No at 93.6%, on $3K of total volume.
When does this market resolve?: The market is scheduled to close on December 31, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?: $3K in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $2K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?: Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

Related on BetG8

Turner Prize 2026 Winner How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?BBC Sports Personality of the Year Winner 2026 October Inflation UK - Annual U.K. Annual Inflation 2026 What will Andy Burnham say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Zack Polanski out as Green Party Leader by...?Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?All live markets Markets resolving this week Prediction market scorecard

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.