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Home / Markets / Elon Musk out as Project Meridian co-lead by January 27?
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Elon Musk out as Project Meridian co-lead by January 27?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 57.5% (+1.5 pts in 24h). $108 has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

57.5%
No 42.5% · Trade →

24h move

+1.5
pts · 7d +30.5

Volume

$108
24h $0 · liquidity $81

Closes

January 28, 2027
83 days left

TrumpresignPoliticsElon Muskus military

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes57.5% +1.5+30.5$10869.0¢
No42.5% -1.5-30.5$108–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Elon Musk ceases to be a co-lead of the U.S. Department of War’s Project Meridian for any period of time during which the project is ongoing between market creation and January 27, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/removal before the projects conclusion by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The conclusion or dissolution of Project Meridian before January 27, 2027, 11:59 PM ET will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Elon Musk and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 57% risks 57¢ to win 43¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Elon Musk out as Project Meridian co-lead by January 27?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 57.5% and No at 42.5%, on $108 of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 28, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$108 in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $81 of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.