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Home / Markets / Number of North Korea Missile Tests in November 2026?
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Number of North Korea Missile Tests in November 2026?: live odds and probabilities

The market favorite is 4+ at 50.5%, ahead of 3 at 30.5%. $13K traded across 5 outcomes.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Favorite

50.5%
4+ · Trade →

24h move

+0.5
pts · 7d +12.0

Volume

$13K
24h $314 · liquidity $14K

Closes

December 1, 2026
25 days left

GeopoliticsKim Jong UnNorth Korea

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
4+50.5% +0.5+12.0$3K23.0¢
330.5% +13.00.0$1K27.0¢
217.0% 0.0-13.5$4K4.0¢
12.9% -0.7-22.6$2K4.7¢
<10.2% 0.0-22.8$2K0.2¢

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:04 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-3011-0211-06
4+321

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during November 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying 4+ at 51% risks 51¢ to win 50¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored in "Number of North Korea Missile Tests in November 2026?"?
As of November 6, 2026, 4+ is the favorite at 50.5%, followed by 3 at 30.5%.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on December 1, 2026. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$13K in total and $314 in the last 24 hours, with about $14K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.