LIVE Hyperliquid whale tracker: the largest open positions and what they are doing, updated every few minutes →
Home / Markets / North Korea missile test/launch by April 15?
Resolved market scorecard

North Korea missile test/launch by April 15?: result and scorecard

Resolved Yes. One day before close Polymarket priced that outcome at 32.0%; a week before, 55.0%. $31K traded in total.

Updated 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Result

Yes
resolved April 8, 2026

Price 1 day before

32.0%
Market leaned the wrong way

Price 7 days before

55.0%
30 days before: –

Volume

$31K
1 outcome

North KoreaKim Jong UnGeopolitics

Final prices by outcome

OutcomeResultVolume
YesWON$31K
NoLOST$31K

Price history to resolution

0%25%50%75%100%03-2503-3104-07
Yes
📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Scorecard

A market that prices the eventual outcome at 32% the day before is getting it wrong in the simplest sense, but a single market says little about calibration. Across many markets, outcomes priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time. See the monthly scorecard for the aggregate record.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

Frequently asked questions

How did "North Korea missile test/launch by April 15?" resolve?
It resolved Yes around April 15, 2026.
What did the market predict?
Polymarket priced the winning outcome at 32.0% one day before close, 55.0% one week before and – one month before.
How much was traded?
$31K across 1 outcome.

Related on BetG8

Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.