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Kim Jong Un visits the US in 2026?: live odds and probabilities

Polymarket traders currently price Yes at 1.4% (0.0 pts in 24h). $525 has traded on this market.

Updated 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC · Source: Polymarket · 18+ · Market prices, not predictions or advice

Yes probability

1.4%
No 98.7% · Trade →

24h move

0.0
pts · 7d -1.8

Volume

$525
24h $0 · liquidity $13K

Closes

January 1, 2027
56 days left

TrumpPoliticsKim Jong UnNorth KoreaU.S. Politics

All outcomes

OutcomeProbability24h7dVolumeSpread
Yes1.4% 0.0-1.8$5251.9¢
No98.7% 0.0+1.8$525–

Prices are the Polymarket mid or last trade at 2026-11-06 03:00 UTC. A price of 64¢ implies roughly a 64% chance. Prices include spread and are not forecasts by BetG8.

📱 Compare how the same event is priced across venues on Polymtrade.Referral link. 18+.

Price history

0%25%50%75%100%10-0610-2111-06
Yes

Market rules and resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un visits the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Kim Jong Un physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Kim Jong Un enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For purposes of this market, territory of the United States excludes military bases or diplomatic compounds that are not otherwise within the sovereign territory of the United States. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US or North Korea, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

How to read this market

Each share pays $1 if its outcome happens. Buying Yes at 1% risks 1¢ to win 99¢. Prices move with news and order flow, and thin markets can swing on small trades, so check volume and spread before treating a number as the crowd's view. See our guides to implied probability and how markets resolve.

Frequently asked questions

What are the odds that Kim Jong Un visits the US in 2026?
As of November 6, 2026, Polymarket prices Yes at 1.4% and No at 98.7%, on $525 of total volume.
When does this market resolve?
The market is scheduled to close on January 1, 2027. It resolves under Polymarket's rules once the outcome is known, which can be earlier or later than the listed date.
How much has been traded?
$525 in total and $0 in the last 24 hours, with about $13K of resting liquidity.
Can I trade this market?
Polymarket restricts access by location; the US version (Polymarket US) and the offshore site have different rules and fee schedules. Check availability in your jurisdiction. BetG8 earns a referral fee from the Polymtrade links on this page.

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Data: Polymarket Gamma and CLOB APIs, fetched by BetG8 at the time shown above. Venues may restrict access by location. 18+ only.